Rabbit Hole: Snow Blowing

I spend a lot of time thinking about regional/industry booms and busts; I give history tours in a former mining town. Colorado gold mining began in 1859 and ended for the most part with WWII when the federal government put the kibosh on any industry that wasn’t war related. But in Breckenridge and most of Summit County, the boom was really only 1880-1890.¹ ² While skiing started in 1961, our second boom—white gold aka skiing—began in the early 2000s. In a year with “no snow,” it feels natural to wonder about our next big bust. In 2018, the Salt Lake Tribune proclaimed, “Colorado ski industry virtually protected from drought.” Their argument was that because ski areas have invested in snow making equipment and water rights we would be insulated from any “drought.” Six years later, Vail Daily put that certainty into question.

Snowmakers use machines to blow compressed water and pressurized air to speed up the process in which water is turned to snow and to force it when nature isn’t cooperating. However, out west water is not necessarily a renewable resource. Ski areas acquire permits from the U.S. Forest Service in order to operate on federal land, and those permits require ski areas “appropriate or acquire water rights under state law for snowmaking and other uses.”³ In Summit County, the ski areas don’t have water rights, but “bank” water for Denver Water. Some ski areas like Arapahoe Basin have holding ponds while others take directly from the nearby rivers. Arapaho Basin, Breckenridge, Copper, Keystone, Frisco Adventure Park, and Winter Park (not in Summit County) are allowed up to 6,300 acre-feet of water between them, roughly two billion gallons of water split six ways.⁴

However, “up-to” does not guarantee water. And there are a couple issues with that supply. First, the amount of water in the snow, or snow water equivalent, is decreasing. A VIC Model, a large-scale, semi-distributed hydrologic model, in 2018 showed uniform decreases in snowpack while observed snow courses show increases in Colorado.⁵ More “champaign” fluffy powder over the last 20 years, but less water to return to the reservoirs and rivers when the snow melts. This means there is less water to borrow. Less natural snow, in addition to later snow fall and earlier snow melts mean longer fire seasons, which mean more need for water. Which leads us to the second problem.

Evapotranspiration. Charred areas store up to 25% less snow and melt off weeks earlier. Add to that the red dust blowing up from the Colorado Plateau and Great Basin that have been disturbed by activities such as “grazing, drought, fire, plowing or vehicles,” and Denver Water’s snow bank isn’t open very long. The dust melts the snow, water from plants has more time to evapotranspirate, and soil drinks up more water before it runs off to creeks or rivers. Rather than gaining interest on their water deposits, Denver Water is breaking even or even losing water. Of course water evaporating wouldn’t matter if it were replaced. And so we come to our third problem.

Aridification. Annual runoff for the Colorado River has decreased 5% since the pioneers came. Precipitation has dropped 7% since 1999 compared with the 20th-century average. In the past 2000 years, we’ve had drought" periods out west that lasted 80 years, and that was before humans tipped the scales toward longer “droughts.” Human pollution is the driver here. Human made emissions are increasing sea-surface temperatures, which create more regular La Niña weather patterns, which cause dryer weather patterns over the Southwestern U.S. including Colorado.⁶ So the water lost to evaporation and soil seepage isn’t being replentish.(But it’s fine that you rented a huge gas guzzling Escalade to drive to the ski areas rather than taking the Bustang or a shuttle.) For those of you who don’t want to admit culpability (and we all are, I’m not pointing fingers), another study founds that during the holocene period changes in Earth’s orbit caused Pacific Ocean warming that locked what is now the western U.S. “in a multimillenia dry phase.” (Drill baby drill, we’ll blame the uninhabitability of the west on Earth’s Orbit.)

For Denver Water and Colorado ski areas, there is a fourth problem. Back in the olden days, the Continental Divide determined where the snowpack drained. Snow on the front range whet to the Mississippi and or the Gulf. Snow on the western slope went to the Pacific. When miners and homesteaders came out west they staked claims to the water. First come, first serve. Over the years, rights have been sold and deals have been made so Denverites can have thirsty Kentucky Blue Grass and non-native trees. Rich front range pioneers bought up land and water rights on the western slope, they built reservoirs, and drilled holes in the mountains to divert that water. About that same time, the feds came along a dammed up the Colorado River and made hydroelectric dams. Despite the laws of first come first serve (and possibly because the feds bought those rights), they have first rights to call. So if the water gets too low down stream in Lake Powell or Lake Mead, they can call from upper basin reservoirs. Possibly even Denver Water’s reservoirs. And even if the Feds don’t call the water down stream, as the Salt Lake Tribune pointed out, fish can.⁷ So, while ski areas out west can and do blow snow (later and later each year as it stays warmer into October and November), it may not last. In fact, some predict we’ll lose a couple weeks over the next 24 years. Skiing may not end in Breck, but this boom will definitely go bust and snowmaking won’t be able to save us.

Other related reads:

A Colorado town nearly ran out of drinking water. Experts say it’s a window into the future.

Drought has revealed for the first time a Colorado town flooded to build a reservoir. And scientists expect to see it again.

Heat from global warming is drying up the Colorado River, UCLA says

Drought threatens future of Colorado’s $20 billion ski Industry

2019 Even after a rush of snow and rain, the thirsty Colorado River Basin is “not out of the woods yet”: It will take as many as 13 water years exactly like this one to erase the impacts of long-term drought in the West, Colorado River District engineers say

A Denver Post Special Report | Part One of Three - Endangered snowpack 1 2 3

1. https://breckhistory.org/the-history-of-breckenridge-co-population-of-summit-county/

2. https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/1910/bulletins/demographics/359-population-co-composition-and-characteristics.pdf

3. https://wsmtlaw.com/news/ski-area-water-rights-federal-water-grab-resolved

4. https://www.denverwater.org/tap/ski-snow-winter-drink-it-next-summer

5. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0012-1

6. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09368-2

7. https://cwcb.colorado.gov/instream-flow-administrative-calls